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Index Geophysics

An ENSO-Forecast Independent Statistical Model for the Prediction of Annual Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency in April

Item

Title (Dublin Core)

An ENSO-Forecast Independent Statistical Model for the Prediction of Annual Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency in April

Description (Dublin Core)

Statistical models for preseason prediction of annual Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) and hurricane counts generally include El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts as a predictor. As a result, the predictions from such models are often contaminated by the errors in ENSO forecasts. In this study, it is found that the latent heat flux (LHF) over Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP, defined as the region 0°–5°N, 115°–125°W) in spring is negatively correlated with the annual Atlantic TC and hurricane counts. By using stepwise backward elimination regression, it is further shown that the March value of ETP LHF is a better predictor than the spring or summer ENSO index for Atlantic TC counts. Leave-one-out cross validation indicates that the annual Atlantic TC counts predicted by this ENSO-independent statistical model show a remarkable correlation with the actual TC counts (R=0.72; P value <0.01). For Atlantic hurricanes, the predictions using March ETP LHF and summer (July–September) ENSO indices show only minor differences except in moderate to strong El Niño years. Thus, March ETP LHF is an excellent predictor for seasonal Atlantic TC prediction and a viable alternative to using ENSO index for Atlantic hurricane prediction.

Creator (Dublin Core)

Kenny Xie
Bin Liu

Subject (Dublin Core)

Meteorology. Climatology
QC851-999

Publisher (Dublin Core)

Hindawi Limited

Date (Dublin Core)

2014-01-01T00:00:00Z

Type (Dublin Core)

article

Identifier (Dublin Core)

1687-9309
1687-9317
10.1155/2014/248148
https://doaj.org/article/eb607f3e931447a198a5a82ba1f8360e

Source (Dublin Core)

Advances in Meteorology, Vol 2014 (2014)

Language (Dublin Core)

EN

Relation (Dublin Core)

http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/248148
https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9309
https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9317

Provenance (Dublin Core)

Journal Licence: CC BY