Ensemble Hydrometeorological Forecasts Using WRF Hourly QPF and TopModel for a Middle Watershed

Item

Title (Dublin Core)

Description (Dublin Core)

Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) were obtained from ensembles of the weather and research forecasting (WRF) model for the Iguaçu river watershed (IRW) in southern Brazil. Thirty-two rainfall events between 2005 and 2010 were simulated with ten configurations of WRF. These rainfall events range from local to synoptic scale convection and caused a significant increase in the level of the Iguaçu river. In the average, the ensembles yielded up to 20% better skill than single WRF forecasts for the events analyzed. WRF ensembles also allow estimating the predictability through the dispersion of the forecasts providing relevant information for decision-making. Phase errors of ensemble forecasts are larger than amplitude errors. More complex microphysics parameterizations yielded better QPFs with smaller phase errors. QPFs were fed to IRW hydrological model with similar phase and amplitude errors. It is suggested that lagged QPFs might reduce phase errors.

Creator (Dublin Core)

Leonardo Calvetti

Augusto José Pereira Filho

Subject (Dublin Core)

Meteorology. Climatology

QC851-999

Publisher (Dublin Core)

Hindawi Limited

Date (Dublin Core)

2014-01-01T00:00:00Z

Type (Dublin Core)

article

Identifier (Dublin Core)

1687-9309

1687-9317

10.1155/2014/484120

https://doaj.org/article/3e2a2d6bc2e0437781b59d66ba9c392d

Source (Dublin Core)

Advances in Meteorology, Vol 2014 (2014)

Language (Dublin Core)

Relation (Dublin Core)

http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/484120

https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9309

https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9317

Provenance (Dublin Core)

Journal Licence: CC BY