Index Geophysics

eng Extreme values of surface wave heights in the northern Adriatic

hrv Ekstremne vrijednosti visina valova za područje sjevernog Jadrana

eng Extreme return values of significant wave heights were calculated using the data of wave heights measured in the open part of the northern Adriatic (platforms PANON and LABIN, lighthouse Sv. Ivan na pučini), by approximating the distribution of monthly extremes by Fisher-Tippet curve (F-T I). Parameters of F-T I distribution of extremes were estimated using three methods: graphic method, method of moments, and maximum likelihood method. Comparison of the results obtained from each method has shown that extreme return values of significant wave heights obtained using the maximum likelihood method best agree with the data of direct instrumental measurements. The greatest significant wave heights are to be expected in the winter period, from December to February. Absolute calculated monthly maximum of a significant wave height occurs in February, being 7.54 m for the return period of 100 years. Major deviations are evident in the summer period (overestimated values), due to a small number of measured data and their dispersion. Extreme expected value of significant wave height in the northern Adriatic for the return period of 100 years is 8.57 m, from which a maximum wave height of about 14 m is estimated, being considered real as regards the maximum measured value of 10.8 m.

hrv Koristeći podatke valnih visina mjerenih u otvorenom dijelu sjevernog Jadrana (platforme PANON i LABIN, svjetionik Sv. Ivan na pučini) izračunate su ekstremne povratne vrijednosti značajnih visina, na način da je razdioba mjesečnih ekstrema aproksimirana Fisher-Tippett krivuljom prvog tipa (F-T I). Parametri F-T I razdiobe ekstrema procijenjeni su pomoću tri metode: grafičkom metodom, metodom momenata, te metodom maksimalne vjerojatnosti (maximum likelihood). Usporedba rezultata pojedinih metoda pokazala je da se povratne ekstremne vrijednosti značajnih valnih
visina dobivene metodom maksimalne vjerojatnosti ponajbolje podudaraju s podacima direktnih instrumentalnih mjerenja. Najveće značajne visine vala treba očekivati u zimskom razdoblju, od prosinca do veljače. Apsolutni izračunati mjesečni maksimum značajne valne visine je u veljači i iznosi 7.54 m za povratni period od 100
godina. Značajnija odstupanja zapažaju se u ljetnim mjesecima (precijenjene vrijednosti) zbog malog broja i velikog raspršenja mjerenih podataka. Ekstremna očekivana vrijednost značajne visine vala u sjevernom Jadranu za povratni period od 100 godina
iznosi 8.57 m, iz čega se može procijeniti maksimalna visina vala od oko 14 m, što se smatra realnim s obzirom na maksimalnu izmjerenu vrijednost od 10.8 m.

Leder, Nenad

Smirčić, Ante

Vilibić, Ivica

eng Wind generated surface waves; theory of extremes; northern Adriatic

hrv povšinski valovi generirani vjetrom; teorija ekstrema; sjeverni Jadran

Andrija Mohorovicic Geophysical Institute

1998

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https://hrcak.srce.hr/17693

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Geofizika

ISSN 0352-3659 (Print)

ISSN 1846-6346 (Online)

Volume 15

Issue 1

eng

info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

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